I suck at predictions, but everyone else is doing them. Luckily, I have a Magic 8 Ball. I’m just gonna list some games, and ask the Magic 8 Ball what it thinks of them. Question to the 8 Ball for all of these games: Will this game have a good year in 2011?
Age of Conan: “Outlook Not So Good”. AoC released its first expansion, “Ride of the Godslayer”, last summer, and that’s pretty much the last I’ve heard of the game. I don’t think the Magic 8 Ball is correct; I think Funcom is content to support their current player base without feeling the need to go F2P. Their massively hyped launch should have helped them recoup their development costs years ago.
Aion: “Concentrate and Ask Again”. November saw Aion publish a massive revamp which added more loot to the game. December brought with it a rebalancing of the world PvP via rifts. Perhaps the Magic 8 Ball’s confusion stemmed from the game’s more Asian market?
Allods Online: “Better Not Tell You Now”. This Russian import stunned the MMO world with its innovative gameplay and Soviet art. It’s famously expensive cash shop instantly dampened the enthusiasm, and it seemed like only a couple of months before the crowds had vanished entirely. We gamers are a fickle folk. What is it, though, that the Magic 8 Ball doesn’t want to tell me? Perhaps a relaunch of the game in the guise of an expansion or a sequel? Only time will tell.
Black Prophecy: “Concentrate and Ask Again”. This space-based dogfighting MMO dropped its beta NDA the same day Rift dropped theirs. And hardly a word was said. Nonetheless, the MMO genre has been waiting for a space dogfighter ever since “Earth & Beyond” went under these many years ago. I expect the game to launch small but experience steady growth as word catches on.
Champions Online: “Very Doubtful”. The Magic 8 Ball clearly feels that going free to play next month won’t be enough to save the struggling superhero MMO. With DC Universe Online launching almost to the day that CO goes F2P, it’s clear there’s going to be an epic battle above the skies of Metropolis and Millennium City. Who will win? The 8 Ball seems to have its money on the SOE offering.
City of Heroes: “Cannot Predict Now”. With DCUO and CO duking it out in January, I have to go along with the Magic 8 Ball. There’s going to be too much mayhem from the two newer titles to have any way to predict how their battle will affect the elder game.
Darkfall: “Cannot Predict Now”. After a stunning six weeks featured on Massively, and Syncaine’s constant recaps, my gut feeling is that Darkfall has found its home with the fantasy PvP sandbox crowd, a niche it dominates. There are lots of fantasy PvP games out there, but few were built to cater to a Western audience. Still, the Magic 8 Ball seems to have its doubts.
DC Universe Online: “It Is Certain”. The 8 Ball is nothing if not consistent. After dissing Champions Online, it’s giving the clear nod to its latest competitor. Will the PlayStation 3 crowd take to the game? DCUO is a game that will live or die on the console.
Dungeons & Dragons Online: “Ask Again Later”. The Magic 8 Ball doesn’t have a strong opinion, and why should it? Since going F2P, Turbine has supported DDO with a steady stream of new content. A reliable money maker like DDO could last for years. However, there are at least two new online games coming based on the D&D license, Neverwinter and Daggerdale. 2011 should be safe for DDO, but come 2012, the story might end a little differently.
Earth Eternal: “Reply Hazy, Try Again”. A spot-on prediction for a troubled game. Earth Eternal joins APB, Gods & Heroes and Mythos as MMOs that either launched and failed, or never launched at all, that have been given new life with new publishers, new developers or both. Last we heard, EE was in the process of finding new hosting and was expected back online any day.
EVE Online: “Don’t Count On It”. Well, we never really expected the “walk around in stations” expansion, Incarna, to ship in 2010, and it didn’t. Magic 8 Ball thinks it won’t ship in 2011 either. Making predictions AGAINST ambulation is an easy win.
EverQuest: “You May Rely On It”. As far as we know, EQ remains the stalwart in SOE’s stable of MMOs, the reliable performer that just keeps chugging along, year after year. The 8 Ball predicts another year of stability, and I see nothing happening this year to prove it wrong. EQ Next? Not happening in 2011.
EverQuest II: “It Is Decidedly So”. The Magic 8 Ball predicts a smashing year for EQ2, but from my vantage point, it’s hard to see that coming true. Maybe EQ2 has found its home with the F2P crowd who are used to spending money on fluff items. The shattered realm still teams with adventure, after all…
Fallen Earth: “Cannot Predict Now”. It’s been a turbulent year for Icarus Studios, and for awhile it looked like they might have downsized too much to keep the game running. Nonetheless, they seem to have found their level and might be positioned such that steady growth could keep them running for a good long time. The 8 Ball can’t call it one way or the other.
Final Fantasy XIV: “It Is Certain”. Um, what are you THINKING, Magic 8 Ball? FFXIV had one of the most disastrous launches of any MMO EVER and heads are STILL rolling! My prediction is that the game is relaunched in Japan only for at least a year before being reintroduced to the West.
Lucent Heart: “It Is Decidedly So”. I dunno why people are always covering games like Tera and consistently ignoring the sleeper import to beat them all, Lucent Heart. The dating sim/MMO is going to definitely be the leader in its niche. Here’s a Chinese spokesmodel in a French maid uniform to explain how Lucent Heart will stop her from being lonely in love: (Video was deleted)